Some users of our traditional Climate Normals products have expressed concerns about using a year average in an era of observed climate change. Because if climate conditions are shifting upward or downward, rather than fluctuating above and below the same constant level, it may make sense to calculate an estimate of the current state of the climate in a different way.
Some of the new calculations are what you might expect: averages over 5-, , , and year periods. Generally speaking, the Hinge Fit is relatively sensitive to recent shifts upward or downward versus the year normal, while the OCN reflects the effects of recent shifts more moderately.
Maps are generally updated around the second week of the following month. Full winter snowfall maps are also provided and generally cover Nov-Apr. Maps are generally updated around the second week of the following season.
Temperature and precipitation outlooks for the day and day periods. The outlooks express forecast probability that temperatures or total precipitation in the or day period will tend to be similar to the highest "above-normal" , middle "near-normal" , or lowest "below-normal" observed in the normals period.
Darker shades of red or blue or green and brown indicate a higher forecast probability. The outlooks are issued by the Climate Prediction Center on the last day of each month valid for the following month , with an update to the outlook on the third Thursday of the following month.
The monthly and seasonal outlooks are similar to the and day outlooks. However, in areas where "Equal Chances" EC is shown, it means that climate signals do not favor either above- or below-normal, and above-, near-, or below-normal forecast categories are equally likely to occur.
A forecast of Equal Chances does NOT necessarily mean forecast conditions are expected to be near-normal. Observations taken from the King St. Ferry Dock in Burlington. Lake levels are broken out into monthly box-and-whisker charts, while the lake temperatures are broken out into box-and-whisker charts over a day period. See graphs for interpretation of box-and-whisker charts. Values are based on the normals. NOTE: For Burlington, VT climate, it is recommended that users use the "Burlington Area" location, which includes climate records prior to , when the official observation site was downtown.
A description of each product can be found in the yellow "Product Description" section. Options will vary depending on which product you chose in Step 2. The vertical gray bars new Moons and blue bars full Moons indicate key Moon phases. We base the humidity comfort level on the dew point, as it determines whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body.
Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Unlike temperature, which typically varies significantly between night and day, dew point tends to change more slowly, so while the temperature may drop at night, a muggy day is typically followed by a muggy night. This section discusses the wide-area hourly average wind vector speed and direction at 10 meters above the ground. The wind experienced at any given location is highly dependent on local topography and other factors, and instantaneous wind speed and direction vary more widely than hourly averages.
The wind is most often from the west for 3. For each hour between AM and PM of each day in the analysis period to , independent scores are computed for perceived temperature, cloud cover, and total precipitation. Those scores are combined into a single hourly composite score, which is then aggregated into days, averaged over all the years in the analysis period, and smoothed.
Our cloud cover score is 10 for fully clear skies, falling linearly to 9 for mostly clear skies, and to 1 for fully overcast skies. Our precipitation score , which is based on the three-hour precipitation centered on the hour in question, is 10 for no precipitation, falling linearly to 9 for trace precipitation, and to 0 for 0.
We nevertheless include the chart below as an illustration of the distribution of temperatures experienced throughout the year. Growing degree days are a measure of yearly heat accumulation used to predict plant and animal development, and defined as the integral of warmth above a base temperature, discarding any excess above a maximum temperature.
This section discusses the total daily incident shortwave solar energy reaching the surface of the ground over a wide area, taking full account of seasonal variations in the length of the day, the elevation of the Sun above the horizon, and absorption by clouds and other atmospheric constituents. Shortwave radiation includes visible light and ultraviolet radiation. The average daily incident shortwave solar energy experiences some seasonal variation over the course of the year.
The brighter period of the year lasts for 2. The darker period of the year lasts for 2. Within 10 miles contains large variations in elevation 5, feet. Morice, J. Nicolas, and A. Qin, G. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y.
Xia, V. Bex and P. Midgley eds. Fahey, K. Hibbard, D. Dokken, B. Stewart, and T.
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